Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 August 2023

Market Insights 22/08/2023


Markets rose again yesterday as we edge closer to potential strike action at the Australian LNG plants of Woodside Energy and Chevron.

With a clear 7 days notice already issued, taking effect on 2nd September, Wednesdays scheduled talks between Woodside and Union representatives have added pressure to find a solution. As previously mentioned, until a deal is agreed risk premium and volatility will likely remain. If a deal is found and strike action averted, then this may quickly be removed.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €40.78 (from €36.41) and the NBP September contract at 102.05p (from 90.89p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 303mcm from Norway (300). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.0) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (41.6). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 91.34% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €40, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €40, Winter €56 (vs €41 and €53)
Curve NBP September 102p, Winter 143p (vs 91p and 136p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 94p).
UK Power DA £92 (from £89).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £94 (£88) and Winter at £131 (£125).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($85) and EUAs are at €88 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.63 ($2.55) and JKM is at $14.30 ($13.95) with TTF Equiv of $13.02 ($11.61).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.