Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 August 2023

Market Insights 21/08/2023


A fairly stable market to end the week as news relating to potential strikes at LNG terminals in Australia is awaited.

News released at the weekend suggests that could be more likely with a potential date of 2nd September for the Woodside Energy workers. Later this week developments for the Chevron plants are to consider the latest proposals. With a mandatory 7 days notice before any action being taken, we’ll see this coming but it also prolongs the process keeping the nervousness on the table until this is officially brought to an end. It seems the most likely outcome is limited industrial action whilst talks remain ongoing to a resolution.

Markets are expected to react negatively with such news in the meantime, until of course this is announced as resolved when all of the fear premium is likely to be removed again.

Friday saw the TTF September contract settle at €36.41 (from €36.83) and the NBP September contract at 90.89p (from 92.94p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 300mcm from Norway (326). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.0mcm (36.2) and Sudzha at 41.6mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 91.05% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €40, UP €4 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €40, Winter €53 (vs €36 and €52)
Curve NBP September 91p, Winter 136p (vs 93p and 134p)
UK Gas NBP spot 94p (from 83p).
UK Power DA £89 (from £82).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £88 (£88) and Winter at £125 (£124).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($84) and EUAs are at €88 (€89). Henry Hub is at $2.55 ($2.62) and JKM is at $13.95 ($14.16) with TTF Equiv of $11.61 ($11.74).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.