Market Insight
Tony Jordan
18 August 2023

Market Insights 18/08/2023


A small decline in market prices in yesterdays session as traders continue to navigate the lack of progress around potential strike action in Australia.

No significant updates whilst talks are expected to continue well into next week, and then any proposals to be considered by workers, meaning this will be hovering over the market for some time yet. With global impact being felt, no doubt the pressure is enhanced to find a suitable solution to avoid a full walk out.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €36.83 (from €37.78) and the NBP September contract at 92.94p (from 95.28p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 326mcm from Norway (326). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.2mcm (36.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 90.12% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €37, Winter €52 (vs €37 and €53)
Curve NBP September 93p, Winter 134p (vs 95p and 135p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 87p).
UK Power DA £82 (from £85).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £88 (£90) and Winter at £124 (£124).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €89 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.62 ($2.59) and JKM is at $14.16 ($14.32) with TTF Equiv of $11.74 ($12.09).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.