Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 August 2023

Market Insights 17/08/2023


A yo-yo of sessions, as the market awaits news on progress relating to the potential strikes in Australia, saw a small downward movement on contracts yesterday.

Mixed messages from both sides of the dispute show slow progress being made with further talks due to take place mid-next week. It is said that the industrial action could range from a brief 30 minute ‘downing of tools’ to a full walk out. Either way a full weeks notice must be provided. On the one hand this is good as the market has time to think and react, whilst the lengthy and slow process moves us closer to the European key winter delivery period and enhances the underlying concerns around supply at a key time.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €37.78 (from €38.81) and the NBP September contract at 95.28p (from 98.43p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 326mcm from Norway (324). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.6mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 89.89% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €37, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €37, Winter €53 (vs €38 and €53)
Curve NBP September 95p, Winter 135p (vs 98p and 138p)
UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 91p).
UK Power DA £85 (from £91).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £90 (£93) and Winter at £124 (£125).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($85) and EUAs are at €88 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.59 ($2.66) and JKM is at $14.32 ($14.73) with TTF Equiv of $12.09 ($12.44).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.