Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 August 2023

Market Insights 15/08/2023


Markets started the week very much where they left off at the end of last week, with a small downward correction on the prompt and the curve staying level.

Much of the nervousness around Australian LNG strikes still lingers. On the positive side, EU gas storage levels now touching the key 90% level, considerably ahead of the mandated timeline to reach this point.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €34.43 (from €35.30) and the NBP September contract at 86.83p (from 89.42p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm from Norway (333). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.2mcm (36.3) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (41.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 89.45% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €36, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €36, Winter €49 (vs €34 and €49)
Curve NBP September 87p, Winter 127p (vs 89p and 127p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 86p).
UK Power DA £83 (from £84).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £85 (£88) and Winter at £118 (£121).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($87) and EUAs are at €88 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.80 ($2.77) and JKM is at $11.15 ($11.09) with TTF Equiv of $11.03 ($11.34).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.