Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 August 2023

Market Insights 14/08/2023


Markets ended on a slightly bearish note to end the week, but not anywhere near enough to undo the fear introduced during the week on the back of potential Australian LNG strikes.

With talks still ongoing, including drawing up plans to limit the export impact if they do go ahead, markets remain nervous and will continue to do so until this risk passes.

Friday saw the TTF September contract settle at €35.30 (from €37.06) and the NBP September contract at 89.42p (from 94.25p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 333mcm from Norway (325). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.3mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 41.3mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 89.09% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €37, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €37, Winter €49 (vs €35 and €49)
Curve NBP September 89p, Winter 127p (vs 94p and 128p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 73p).
UK Power DA £84 (from £82).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £88 (£90) and Winter at £121 (£121).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($86) and EUAs are at €87 (€85). Henry Hub is at $2.77 ($2.76) and JKM is at $11.09 ($11.05) with TTF Equiv of $11.34 ($11.98).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.