Market Insight
Tony Jordan
11 August 2023

Market Insights 11/08/2023


Markets retreated slightly from the panic seen on Wednesday following those potential strike announcements in Australia.

Union talks are expected to have some global focus as they seek to avert the strikes over pay and conditions for the LNG workers. Whilst nearly all of the Australian output delivers to the Asian markets, the news shows just how sensitive to global events the European markets remain.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €37.06 (from €39.82) and the NBP September contract at 94.25p (from 101.08p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 325mcm from Norway (330). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 88.28% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €37, Winter €49 (vs €37 and €51)
Curve NBP September 94p, Winter 128p (vs 101p and 131p)
UK Gas NBP spot 73p (from 73p).
UK Power DA £82 (from £81).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £90 (£93) and Winter at £121 (£123).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($88) and EUAs are at €85 (€84). Henry Hub is at $2.76 ($2.96) and JKM is at $11.05 ($11.03) with TTF Equiv of $11.98 ($12.83).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.