Market Insight
Tony Jordan
10 August 2023

Market Insights 10/08/2023


Yesterday showed just how nervous the market remains and will react to any form of bad news.

Australian workers at Woodside Energy and Chevron LNG plants voting to strike, possibly as early as next week. The output from these plants account for around 11% of global exports, and the downing of tools in the coming days would coincide with large-scale planned maintenance in Norway – squeezing supply fears. The news pushed European front month contracts to a two-month high, showing a 30% increase on the day, with curve products following but not as aggressively.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €39.82 (from €31.07) and the NBP September contract at 101.08p (from 78.14p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 330mcm from Norway (337). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 88.02% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €41, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €41, Winter €51 (vs €40 and €46)
Curve NBP September 101p, Winter 131p (vs 78p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 73p (from 73p).
UK Power DA £81 (from £77).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £93 (£80) and Winter at £123 (£115).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $88 ($86) and EUAs are at €84 (€84). Henry Hub is at $2.96 ($2.78) and JKM is at $11.03 ($10.96) with TTF Equiv of $12.83 ($9.98).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.