Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 August 2023

Market Insights 03/08/2023


A mixed session yesterday with the front month rising as we manage through planned (and some unplanned) outages this month on the Norwegian assets which nudged the front month contract up, whilst the curve softened slightly.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €28.74 (from €27.12) and the NBP September contract at 72.16p (from 67.90p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 308mcm from Norway (315). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.6mcm (37.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 86.09% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €29, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €29, Winter €45 (vs €29 and €46)
Curve NBP September 72p, Winter 117p (vs 68p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 70p (from 67p).
UK Power DA £59 (from £69).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £75 (£74) and Winter at £112 (£113).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($85) and EUAs are at €83 (€85). Henry Hub is at $2.48 ($2.56) and JKM is at $10.97 ($10.93) with TTF Equiv of $9.23 ($8.73).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.