Market Insight
Tony Jordan
31 July 2023

Market Insights 31/07/2023


Markets continued the downward trend to end the week, and the month, as September now becomes the new front month and edging us closer to the upcoming winter delivery contracts.

EU gas storage levels now pass the 85% marker, which should continue to provide some level of confidence, as we head into several planned outages in the Norwegian fleet from tomorrow.

Friday saw the TTF September contract settle at €26.88 (from €28.43) and the NBP August contract at 67.73p (from 70.02p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm from Norway (335). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.7mcm (37.1) and Sudzha at 40.9mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 85.37% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €27, Winter €46 (vs €27 and €48)
Curve NBP September 68p, Winter 117p (vs 70p and 123p)
UK Gas NBP spot 60p (from 70p).
UK Power DA £67 (from £79).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £68 (£73) and Winter at £115 (£119).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($84) and EUAs are at €89 (€91). Henry Hub is at $2.64 ($2.60) and JKM is at $10.78 ($10.97) with TTF Equiv of $8.69 ($9.16).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.