Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 July 2023

Market Insights 27/07/2023


A pullback in yesterdays session to show the downtrend continuing once again, unwinding the previous days gains.

The small uptick in recent sessions appears enough to have attracted some LNG interest to the UK and we now expect two cargoes in the coming weeks after having nothing on the horizon for several days.

Several oil majors announced Q2 profits yesterday including EquinorShell and TotalEnergies all of whom declared reduced amounts compared to previous periods where records were beaten.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €29.28 (from €32.65) and the NBP August contract at 73.24p (from 81.39p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm from Norway (340). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.1mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 84.25% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €29, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €29, Winter €49 (vs €29 and €51)
Curve NBP August 73p, Winter 125p (vs 81p and 132p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 79p).
UK Power DA £86 (from £83).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £78 (£81) and Winter at £122 (£124).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($84) and EUAs are at €91 (€92). Henry Hub is at $2.67 ($2.73) and JKM is at $11.10 ($11.46) with TTF Equiv of $9.51 ($10.57).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.