Market Insight
Tony Jordan
26 July 2023

Market Insights 26/07/2023


Concerns around potential Norwegian outages in the weeks ahead and a lack of LNG heading towards Europe continue and have pushed the market upwards in yesterdays session.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €32.65 (from €30.56) and the NBP August contract at 81.39p (from 76.83p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm from Norway (341). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 84.00% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €34, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €34, Winter €51 (vs €33 and €50)
Curve NBP August 81p, Winter 132p (vs 77p and 129p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 76p).
UK Power DA £83 (from £82).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £81 (£78) and Winter at £124 (£121).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €92 (€91). Henry Hub is at $2.73 ($2.69) and JKM is at $11.46 ($11.26) with TTF Equiv of $10.57 ($9.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.