Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 July 2023

Market Insights 25/07/2023


A rise in the prompt contracts yesterday, but less movement along the curve as we head to the final days of the month ahead contract.

The August contract still has some level of fear in relation to potential issues with possible Norwegian outages with little LNG flowing towards Europe (none to the UK) in support for the coming weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €30.56 (from €28.16) and the NBP August contract at 76.83p (from 70.82p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 341mcm from Norway (337). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (36.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 83.74% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €30, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €30, Winter €50 (vs €31 and €51)
Curve NBP August 77p, Winter 129p (vs 71p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 76p (from 66p).
UK Power DA £82 (from £75).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £78 (£75) and Winter at £121 (£122).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($81) and EUAs are at €91 (€91). Henry Hub is at $2.69 ($2.71) and JKM is at $11.26 ($10.89) with TTF Equiv of $9.93 ($9.18).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.