Market Insight
Tony Jordan
24 July 2023

Market Insights 24/07/2023


A fairly flat session to end the week.

Norwegian flows looking strong once again but still subject to unplanned outages as seen quite often recently, which could cause short term concern in the market. Meanwhile storage levels are well into the 80% range now which will give a good level of comfort.

Friday saw the TTF August contract settle at €28.16 (from €28.02) and the NBP August contract at 70.82p (from 70.36p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm from Norway (335). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.4mcm (38.5) and Sudzha at 40.2mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 83.36% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €28, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €28, Winter €51 (vs €28 and €49)
Curve NBP August 71p, Winter 126p (vs 70p and 128p)
UK Gas NBP spot 66p (from 69p).
UK Power DA £75 (from £77).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £75 (£76) and Winter at £122 (£122).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($80) and EUAs are at €91 (€91). Henry Hub is at $2.71 ($2.76) and JKM is at $10.89 ($10.92) with TTF Equiv of $9.18 ($9.15).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.