Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 July 2023

Market Insights 21/07/2023


Prices continue to show a small upside towards the end of the week.

Whilst largely expected to be temporary, perhaps due to additional gas demand to generate more electricity for the continent as Spain puts all of its gas fired generation online to help manage the current heatwave with aircon demand, markets continue to stay calm with just relatively small movements.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €28.02 (from €26.96) and the NBP August contract at 70.36p (from 67.87p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 335mcm from Norway (335). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.5mcm (38.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 82.53% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €29, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €29, Winter €49 (vs €28 and €48)
Curve NBP August 70p, Winter 128p (vs 68p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 69p (from 69p).
UK Power DA £77 (from £80).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £76 (£74) and Winter at £122 (£119).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($79) and EUAs are at €91 (€89). Henry Hub is at $2.76 ($2.60) and JKM is at $10.92 ($10.75) with TTF Equiv of $9.15 ($8.85).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.