Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 July 2023

Market Insights 19/07/2023


Markets took a breather yesterday after a prolonged downward trend in recent weeks, and ticked up in a bullish session.

No real change to the overall outlook however with strong flow levels from Norway and EU gas storage now well in to the 80% zone at the middle of July. LNG flows towards the UK are now zero with 2 cargoes expected at Belgium in the coming weeks and 7 at Netherlands Gate.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €27.07 (from €25.10) and the NBP August contract at 66.69p (from 61.59p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 335mcm from Norway (325). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.7mcm (38.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 82.09% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €27, Winter €48 (vs €27 and €45)
Curve NBP August 67p, Winter 122p (vs 62p and 115p)
UK Gas NBP spot 69p (from 61p).
UK Power DA £81 (from £90).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £73 (£72) and Winter at £118 (£113).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($79) and EUAs are at €87 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.63 ($2.51) and JKM is at $11.02 ($10.56) with TTF Equiv of $8.91 ($8.27).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.