Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 July 2023

Market Insights 17/07/2023


A bit of a wild session on Friday to end the week which saw the prices move up early in the session before finishing to relatively flat come the close. This was mostly seen on the prompt contracts.

As Europe swelters in extreme heat, electricity prices over the weekend plummeted including for the UK who’s day ahead market for yesterday was at just £6/MWh on average with plenty of negative hours.

A long-awaited return to a number of Norwegian gas assets over the weekend are likely to help promote some further confidence the market.

Friday saw the TTF August contract settle at €25.96 (from €26.61) and the NBP August contract at 63.39p (from 64.46p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 321mcm from Norway (274). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.5mcm (38.3) and Sudzha at 39.8mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 80.07% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €24, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €24, Winter €46 (vs €26 and €45)
Curve NBP August 63p, Winter 117p (vs 64p and 114p)
UK Gas NBP spot 58p (from 62p).
UK Power DA £72 (from £72).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £74 (£75) and Winter at £117 (£114).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($81) and EUAs are at €86 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.54 ($2.55) and JKM is at $10.69 ($11.91) with TTF Equiv of $8.56 ($8.73).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.