Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 July 2023

Market Insights 14/07/2023


A flat day by the end of the session after a bearish start yesterday.

Some revisions to the Norwegian maintenance schedule has kept some element of underlying concern in the market to remain, but these are likely to be short term whilst major assets are returned to service in the coming days and weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €26.61 (from €26.64) and the NBP August contract at 64.46p (from 64.79p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 274mcm from Norway (267). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.3mcm (38.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 80.31% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €27, Winter €45 (vs €27 and €45)
Curve NBP August 64p, Winter 114p (vs 65p and 115p)
UK Gas NBP spot 62p (from 65p).
UK Power DA £72 (from £83).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £75 (£74) and Winter at £114 (£114).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($80) and EUAs are at €86 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.55 ($2.63) and JKM is at $11.91 ($11.98) with TTF Equiv of $8.73 ($8.69).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.