Market Insight
Tony Jordan
13 July 2023

Market Insights 13/07/2023


A very bearish session yesterday, particularly on the front month, as Shell confirmed the return of Nyhamna on 15th July.

The return from planned maintenance of Nyhamna was delayed last month due to ongoing issues and created short term panic in the market, with intraday spikes of 30%. The market has since returned to ‘pre panic’ levels and appears to want to drive lower still.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €26.64 (from €29.06) and the NBP August contract at 64.79p (from 70.51p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 267mcm from Norway (267). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.3mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 80.15% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €26, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €26, Winter €45 (vs €27 and €47)
Curve NBP August 65p, Winter 115p (vs 71p and 119p)
UK Gas NBP spot 65p (from 72p).
UK Power DA £83 (from £79).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £74 (£77) and Winter at £114 (£117).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($79) and EUAs are at €86 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.63 ($2.73) and JKM is at $11.98 ($12.02) with TTF Equiv of $8.69 ($9.37).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.