Market Insight
Tony Jordan
12 July 2023

Market Insights 12/07/2023


More downside seen in yesterdays session to continue the overall downtrend seen of late.

Centrica took the much of the headlines yesterday after announcing a long term LNG deal with US firm Delfin Midstream which will see 14 cargoes to the UK per year over the 15 year term from 2027, helping to secure the UK with around 5% of UK homes demand.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €29.06 (from €30.23) and the NBP August contract at 70.51p (from 73.53p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 267mcm from Norway (263). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 80.10% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €29, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €29, Winter €47 (vs €29 and €49)
Curve NBP August 71p, Winter 119p (vs 74p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 72p (from 74p).
UK Power DA £79 (from £88).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £77 (£80) and Winter at £117 (£121).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($78) and EUAs are at €87 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.73 ($2.67) and JKM is at $12.02 ($12.06) with TTF Equiv of $9.37 ($9.74).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.