Market Insight
Tony Jordan
11 July 2023

Market Insights 11/07/2023


The bears took control of yesterdays session with sizeable downward movements across the board, after prices hit a questionable direction level at Fridays close.

The overall down trend continues it seems for now with strong Norwegian output and storage levels almost at 80%.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €30.23 (from €33.48) and the NBP August contract at 73.53p (from 81.86p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 263mcm from Norway (258). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (36.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 79.80% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €29, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €29, Winter €49 (vs €30 and €52)
Curve NBP August 74p, Winter 126p (vs 82p and 134p)
UK Gas NBP spot 74p (from 80p).
UK Power DA £88 (from £91).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £80 (£85) and Winter at £121 (£127).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($78) and EUAs are at €86 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.67 ($2.58) and JKM is at $12.06 ($12.09) with TTF Equiv of $9.74 ($10.76).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.