Market Insight
Tony Jordan
10 July 2023

Market Insights 10/07/2023


An upward session, albeit small, to end the week on Friday but still trading well within the range seen over the past few weeks.

Overall there seems to be little change in the underlying fundamentals which may drive the markets to continue the overall downtrend seen for much of 2023 so far, although some levels are clearly testing the market and we have seen some ‘bounces’ when hitting these.

Friday saw the TTF August contract settle at €33.48 (from €32.35) and the NBP August contract at 81.86p (from 79.25p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 258mcm from Norway (252). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.6mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 40.7mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 79.45% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €33, Winter €52 (vs €33 and €51)
Curve NBP August 82p, Winter 134p (vs 79p and 130p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 79p).
UK Power DA £91 (from £81).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £85 (£84) and Winter at £127 (£125).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($77) and EUAs are at €86 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.58 ($2.61) and JKM is at $12.09 ($12.08) with TTF Equiv of $10.76 ($10.31).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.