Market Insight
Tony Jordan
7 July 2023

Market Insights 07/07/2023


A bearish session yesterday, particularly at the prompt where much greater movement is seen in recent weeks.

Aside from a small dip in temperatures expected during the week of the 17th, long term forecasts continue to show above average temperatures to be expected for the coming six weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €32.35 (from €34.37) and the NBP August contract at 79.25p (from 84.49p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 252mcm from Norway (256). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (38,2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 78.63% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €33, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €33, Winter €51 (vs €32 and €51)
Curve NBP August 79p, Winter 130p (vs 84p and 132p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 83p).
UK Power DA £81 (from £90).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £84 (£89) and Winter at £125 (£126).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($77) and EUAs are at €86 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.61 ($2.66) and JKM is at $12.08 ($12.10) with TTF Equiv of $10.31 ($10.96).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.