Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 July 2023

Market Insights 05/07/2023


Markets remain rangebound with an overall bullish direction yesterday to push levels up slightly to the previous day.

There is still no change in the overall outlook, and so we may see this daily yo-yo for some time to come yet.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €35.41 (from €33.93) and the NBP August contract at 86.78p (from 83.65p).

Norne finally returns from unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 253mcm from Norway (250). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.7mcm (37.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 78.14% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €34, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €34, Winter €51 (vs €35 and €49)
Curve NBP August 87p, Winter 132p (vs 84p and 128p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 84p).
UK Power DA £85 (from £90).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £91 (£89) and Winter at £128 (£135).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($75) and EUAs are at €87 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.71 ($2.71) and JKM is at $12.08 ($12.08) with TTF Equiv of $11.33 ($10.87).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.