Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 July 2023

Market Insights 04/07/2023


A bearish start to the week as prices continue to hold within a range, despite a few days of up and down movement seen in recent weeks a clear direction is still not clear.

Long term temperature forecasts continue to show above seasonal normal to be expected for the coming six weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF August contract settle at €33.93 (from €37.10) and the NBP August contract at 83.65p (from 91.22p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 250mcm from Norway (252). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.6mcm (36.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 77.86% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €34, Winter €49 (vs €34 and €52)
Curve NBP August 84p, Winter 128p (vs 91p and 135p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 95p).
UK Power DA £90 (from £68).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £89 (£94) and Winter at £135 (£129).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($75) and EUAs are at €87 (€89). Henry Hub is at $2.71 ($2.80) and JKM is at $12.08 ($12.24) with TTF Equiv of $10.87 ($11.88).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.