Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 July 2023

Market Insights 03/07/2023


Welcome to July – already halfway through the year. Friday saw a bullish end to the week.

On Friday Centrica announced that the Rough storage facility, the UKs largest gas storage asset, will hold around double what it could last winter after works to increase the capacity. However this is still around half of what the pre-closure capacity was and is still very small compared to the capacity available on the continent.

Friday saw the TTF August contract settle at €37.10 (from €35.34) and the NBP August contract at 91.22p (from 87.34p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 252mcm from Norway (234). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.2mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 41.1mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 77.50% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the August TTF contract at €39, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF August €39, Winter €52 (vs €37 and €50)
Curve NBP August 91p, Winter 135p (vs 85p and 131p)
UK Gas NBP spot 95p (from 85p).
UK Power DA £68 (from £86).

UK power prices show the UK August Baseload contract at £94 (£90) and Winter at £129 (£128).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($74) and EUAs are at €89 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.80 ($2.70) and JKM is at $12.24 ($12.12) with TTF Equiv of $11.88 ($11.10).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.