Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 June 2023

Market Insights 22/06/2023


Another mixed session yesterday, resulting in a small discount by the end of the session mostly driven by continued nervousness around Norwegian outages and several technical market levels being tested.

Until mid-July, when the major planned gas fields are expected to return to service, this may the norm.

Yesterday saw the TTF July contract settle at €36.74 (from €38.71) and the NBP July contract at 91.82p (from 96.46p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 221mcm from Norway (228). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 41.6mcm (41.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 74.94% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €37, Winter €52 (vs €37 and €54)
Curve NBP July 92p, Winter 137p (vs 96p and 139p)
UK Gas NBP spot 94p (from 96p).
UK Power DA £108 (from £105).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £101 (£102) and Winter at £138 (£141).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($76) and EUAs are at €91 (€95). Henry Hub is at $2.60 ($2.49) and JKM is at $12.48 ($12.74) with TTF Equiv of $11.80 ($12.38).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.