Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 June 2023

Market Insights 21/06/2023


Another bullish session mostly driven by technical levels being hit, although not helped by a lack of renewable generation meaning more gas for power requirement.

No real change in the outlook, which appears nervous in the short term especially with Norwegian field outages, but a bearish trend likely over the longer term.

Yesterday saw the TTF July contract settle at €38.71 (from €34.90) and the NBP July contract at 96.46p (from 86.14p).

Asgard and Skarv join Norne on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 228mcm from Norway (241). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 41.8mcm (41.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 74.67% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €38, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €38, Winter €54 (vs €39 and €51)
Curve NBP July 96p, Winter 139p (vs 86p and 131p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 88p).
UK Power DA £105 (from £103).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £102 (£93) and Winter at £141 (£129).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($76) and EUAs are at €95 (€92). Henry Hub is at $2.49 ($2.63) and JKM is at $12.74 ($11.20) with TTF Equiv of $12.38 ($11.18).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.