Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 June 2023

Market Insights 20/06/2023


A bearish start to the week, reaching around 10% down to Fridays settlement early on, was slowly eroded throughout the rest of the session yesterday.

It seems the market is still trying to find its comfort level, wanting to show some bearish movement but at the same time nervous around supply levels considering the impact of prolonged Norwegian outages as noted last week.

Yesterday saw the TTF July contract settle at €34.90 (from €35.01) and the NBP July contract at 86.14p (from 87.20p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 241mcm from Norway (236). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (36.5) and Sudzha at 41.8mcm (41.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 73.86% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €36, Winter €51 (vs €35 and €51)
Curve NBP July 86p, Winter 131p (vs 87p and 131p)
UK Gas NBP spot 88p (from 84p).
UK Power DA £103 (from £988).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £93 (£100) and Winter at £129 (£135).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($77) and EUAs are at €92 (€92). Henry Hub is at $2.63 ($2.63) and JKM is at $11.20 ($11.20) with TTF Equiv of $11.18 ($11.22).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.