Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 June 2023

Market Insights 19/06/2023


A bearish session to end the week after some extremely volatile sessions last week, mostly caused by fear of extended Norwegian gas field outages.

A bearish start to this week also as contracts trade down by almost 10% in the first trades on the front month TTF contract which may set the tone for this coming week.

Friday saw the TTF July contract settle at €35.01 (from €41.15) and the NBP July contract at 87.20p (from 103.00p).

Kollsnes joins Norne on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 236mcm from Norway (256). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.5mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 41.4mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 73.98% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €32, DOWN €3 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €32, Winter €51 (vs €35 and €56)
Curve NBP July 87p, Winter 131p (vs 96p and 147p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 101p).
UK Power DA £98 (from £108).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £100 (£115) and Winter at £135 (£147).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($76) and EUAs are at €92 (€93). Henry Hub is at $2.63 ($2.53) and JKM is at $11.20 ($13.69) with TTF Equiv of $11.22 ($13.19).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.