Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 June 2023

Market Insights 15/06/2023


Once again a bearish looking morning turned into a bullish session come the afternoon and we now see the UK gas front month heading towards £1/therm, almost doubling in value from the start of the month.

Reports relating to the outcome of the investigation into the Nord Stream AG attacks being made public in the coming months, almost a year after the attacks took place, were noted yesterday by Swedish officials which are almost certain to support the long-expected thought they were state-backed. Russian officials, who continue to push for transparency in the investigation, also noted yesterday they had the right to retaliate against (alleged) Western attacks by attacking undersea communications cables.

Yesterday saw the TTF July contract settle at €38.31 (from €36.05) and the NBP July contract at 95.51p (from 91.72p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 260mcm from Norway (261). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 41.6mcm (41.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 72.86% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €37, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €37, Winter €53 (vs €38 and €50)
Curve NBP July 96p, Winter 138p (vs 92p and 131p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 86p).
UK Power DA £97 (from £85).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £98 (£85) and Winter at £138 (£133).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($74) and EUAs are at €93 (€90). Henry Hub is at $2.34 ($2.34) and JKM is at $9.40 ($9.30) with TTF Equiv of $12.19 ($11.41).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.