Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 June 2023

Market Insights 14/06/2023


Markets showed a bearish morning before turning aggressively to the upside after it was announced by Gassco AS that major gas processing plant, Nyhamna, will undergo an extended planned outage by around a month longer than originally planned due to cooling service issues according to operator Shell.

The plant was originally due to return to service tomorrow, and so this prolonged outage comes as a last-minute surprise to the market which the prompt delivery contracts rise by around 15-20% to the previous days settlement.

With European LNG prices now above Asian price levels, this may help attract some additional cargoes for the weeks ahead in order to help rebalance some of the flows missing from Norway, which have been on the low side in recent weeks whilst Europe enjoyed a long running bearish trend.

Yesterday saw the TTF July contract settle at €36.05 (from €31.04) and the NBP July contract at 91.72p (from 75.63p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 261mcm from Norway (249). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (37.0) and Sudzha at 41.1mcm (41.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 72.56% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €36, Winter €50 (vs €36 and €46)
Curve NBP July 92p, Winter 131p (vs 76p and 121p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 77p).
UK Power DA £85 (from £85).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £85 (£85) and Winter at £133 (£126).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($72) and EUAs are at €90 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.34 ($2.27) and JKM is at $9.30 ($9.27) with TTF Equiv of $11.41 ($9.79).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.