Market Insight
Tony Jordan
9 June 2023

Market Insights 09/06/2023


Another session of small upside across the board, as we wait on the return to service of Hammerfest LNG, watch general LNG cargoes towards the UK fall to just one over the coming weeks and prepare for planned Norwegian gas field maintenance to take hold.

The latest UK long term temperature runs show average temperatures to be around 5 degrees Celsius above season normal for the coming days before retreating to around 2 degrees above where it remains until towards the end of July – it could be another very hot summer.

Yesterday saw the TTF July contract settle at €26.95 (from €26.33) and the NBP July contract at 63.39p (from 62.27p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 225mcm from Norway (232). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 40.9mcm (40.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 70.94% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €27, Winter €42 (vs €27 and €41)
Curve NBP July 63p, Winter 109p (vs 62p and 107p)
UK Gas NBP spot 66p (from 67p).
UK Power DA £72 (from £69).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £80 (£75) and Winter at £117 (£117).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($77) and EUAs are at €84 (€84). Henry Hub is at $2.35 ($2.33) and JKM is at $9.21 ($9.24) with TTF Equiv of $8.52 ($8.27).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.