Market Insight
Tony Jordan
7 June 2023

Market Insights 07/06/2023


A bearish session was seen yesterday as contracts pulled back from Mondays bull run.

After many weeks of calm, some recent days have shown how volatile the market still can be with technical levels being tested and concerns around supply outages adding to the mix. Fortunately, a ten percent movement today is nowhere near as impactful as it was this time last year with prices are still at much more palatable levels than they have been.

Yesterday saw the TTF July contract settle at €24.86 (from €28.48) and the NBP July contract at 59.15p (from 67.22p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 224mcm from Norway (226). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 40.7mcm (40.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 70.37% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €25, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €25, Winter €41 (vs €25 and €43)
Curve NBP July 59p, Winter 106p (vs 67p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 65p (from 75p).
UK Power DA £77 (from £75).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £78 (£76) and Winter at £117 (£121).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($77) and EUAs are at €82 (€82). Henry Hub is at $2.26 ($2.25) and JKM is at $9.21 ($9.27) with TTF Equiv of $7.80 ($8.96).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.