Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 June 2023

Market Insights 01/06/2023


Welcome to June. Yesterdays session was an interesting one where, for the first time in a while, we saw just how nervous the underlying market is. With news of Norways Hammerfest LNG plant experiencing a leak, the market ‘rocketed’ showing prompt contracts erasing the discounts enjoyed over the past week or so – but to later recover with smaller gains on the day overall.

Hammerfest LNG is quite small, but any infrastructure threat seems to have the market on tenterhooks. The leak was confirmed to have stopped later in the day, but a return to service is not yet clear. On top of this we have two Norwegian gas fields on unplanned outage currently, one of which has been so for around a week. On top of that, as mentioned a few times of late, LNG flows towards Europe overall are their lowest for some time.

Yesterday saw the TTF July contract settle at €26.85 (from €25.24) and the NBP July contract at 63.53p (from 57.59p).

Visund joins Norne which remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 209mcm from Norway (218). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 40.6mcm (40.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 68.63% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the July TTF contract at €26, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF July €26, Winter €42 (vs €27 and €42)
Curve NBP July 64p, Winter 111p (vs 58p and 109p)
UK Gas NBP spot 64p (from 62p).
UK Power DA £69 (from £68).

UK power prices show the UK July Baseload contract at £73 (£70) and Winter at £120 (£118).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($74) and EUAs are at €81 (€81). Henry Hub is at $2.27 ($2.33) and JKM is at $9.29 ($9.37) with TTF Equiv of $8.40 ($7.95).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.