Market Insight
Tony Jordan
30 May 2023

Market Insights 30/05/2023


Another bearish day to end the week showing prices levels not seen for two years at the prompt.

LNG ship arrivals have slowly been declining in recent weeks as a result and we now only expect a handful of cargo arrivals to the UK in the coming weeks as other markets now become more attractive. This will need to be kept a close eye on to ensure they return towards UK and European markets when needed, without a spike in prices to do so.

EU gas storage levels are now heading towards the 70% mark and remain on trajectory to follow the 2019 and 2020 levels by the end of July at the current injection rate, which would see them hit around 85% at that point. UK temperature forecasts for June and into July remain above seasonal normal.

Friday saw the TTF June contract settle at €24.56 (from €25.45) and the NBP June contract at 57.36p (from 58.58p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 227mcm from Norway (228). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.5mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 40.6mcm (41.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 68.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €24, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €24, Winter €42 (vs €24 and €45)
Curve NBP June 57p, Winter 110p (vs 59p and 115p)
UK Gas NBP spot 61p (from 59p).
UK Power DA £71 (from £73).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £71 (£72) and Winter at £120 (£126).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($76) and EUAs are at €83 (€83). Henry Hub is at $2.42 ($2.31) and JKM is at $9.24 ($9.35) with TTF Equiv of $7.71 ($8.00).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.