Market Insight
Tony Jordan
26 May 2023

Market Insights 26/05/2023


A ‘big’ move seen for the first time in a long time in yesterdays session, as markets showed some downside to the tune of around ten percent.

A healthy current supply/demand mix, with emphasis on confidence from EU forecasts over demand reductions this year to counter the current supply of Russian imports (LNG + Nat Gas), appear to be the main drivers of some market comfort that has been ‘teetering’ for some time now.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €25.45 (from €27.79) and the NBP June contract at 58.58p (from 64.37p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 228mcm from Norway (228). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 41.1mcm (41.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 66.71% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €24, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €24, Winter €45 (vs €25 and €48)
Curve NBP June 59p, Winter 115p (vs 64p and 125p)
UK Gas NBP spot 59p (from 67p).
UK Power DA £84 (from £85).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £72 (£77) and Winter at £126 (£135).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($78) and EUAs are at €83 (€85). Henry Hub is at $2.31 ($2.40) and JKM is at $9.35 ($9.58) with TTF Equiv of $8.00 ($8.76).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.