Tony Jordan
23 May 2023

Market Insights 23/05/2023


Yet another calm session to start the week off which saw no real overall movement across the board.

The prompt remains soft with a clear winter premium – something the market has been used to for many years with the exception of the last couple resulting from the extreme levels of volatility.

The latest long term temperature forecasts continue to show a warm June for the UK, typically a couple of degrees above seasonal normal on average.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €29.71 (from €30.18) and the NBP June contract at 66.36p (from 68.36p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 226mcm from Norway (246). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (36.5) and Sudzha at 41.2mcm (40.9). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 65.93% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €29, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €29, Winter €49 (vs €30 and €48)
Curve NBP June 66p, Winter 125p (vs 68p and 125p)
UK Gas NBP spot 66p (from 64p).
UK Power DA £85 (from £87).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £80 (£82) and Winter at £140 (£141).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($76) and EUAs are at €88 (€90). Henry Hub is at $2.40 ($2.59) and JKM is at $9.76 ($9.84) with TTF Equiv of $9.41 ($9.57).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.