Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 May 2023

Market Insights 19/05/2023


A fall in prompt prices pushed levels to those not seen since 2021, with the TTF front month now sitting below €30/MWh and UK NBP below 70p/therm.

The latest temperature outlook continues to show June to be a warmer than seasonal month, which has been expected in the last few weeks forecasts.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €29.79 (from €31.95) and the NBP June contract at 67.78p (from 72.95p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 253mcm from Norway (290). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.0mcm (37.1) and Sudzha at 41.2mcm (41.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. Gas storage showing at 64.58% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €30, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €30, Winter €48 (vs €30 and €49)
Curve NBP June 68p, Winter 123p (vs 73p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 63p (from 70p).
UK Power DA £95 (from £93).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £82 (£84) and Winter at £141 (£141).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($77) and EUAs are at €90 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.59 ($2.37) and JKM is at $9.72 ($9.95) with TTF Equiv of $9.41 ($10.15).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.