Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 May 2023

Market Insights 17/05/2023


Another calm session, something now of common occurrence, saw a further bearish tone across the board. We now see the UK gas winter contract close to 120p/therm, having held around 150p/therm until recently. Similarly we also see spot prices at much more sensible levels, although not back to price levels of what we would call ‘normal’ – those being pre-Covid.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €31.82 (from €32.77) and the NBP June contract at 73.65p (from 75.93p).

Norne remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 292mcm from Norway (280). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.1mcm (37.1) and Sudzha at 41.2mcm (40.9). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 64.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €32, Winter €48 (vs €32 and €49)
Curve NBP June 74p, Winter 122p (vs 74p and 125p)
UK Gas NBP spot 71p (from 71p).
UK Power DA £95 (from £96).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £84 (£86) and Winter at £138 (£140).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($75) and EUAs are at €89 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.38 ($2.38) and JKM is at $9.86 ($10.04) with TTF Equiv of $10.13 ($10.31).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.