Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 May 2023

Market Insights 15/05/2023


A bearish end to the week saw prices hit long term lows, particularly at the front of the curve where June contracts dipped more strongly.

Not much to report in wider news, with everything looking to remain the same in terms of temperature and supply outlooks, which helps to maintain a ‘calm’ market compared to what we have seen for the past two summers where markets have been on the increase.

Friday saw the TTF June contract settle at €32.77 (from €34.99) and the NBP June contract at 75.93p (from 80.75p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 299mcm from Norway (295). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (37.0) and Sudzha at 40.2mcm (40.6). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 63.32% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €33, Winter €52 (vs €33 and €55)
Curve NBP June 76p, Winter 134p (vs 81p and 142p)
UK Gas NBP spot 76p (from 81p).
UK Power DA £94 (from £100).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £85 (£89) and Winter at £150 (£151).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($75) and EUAs are at €88 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.27 ($2.19) and JKM is at $11.12 ($11.16) with TTF Equiv of $10.44 ($11.20).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.