Market Insight
Tony Jordan
12 May 2023

Market Insights 12/05/2023


A level market yesterday with very tiny movements seen across the board.

The latest long term temperature forecasts show to expect a warmer than average June, which may help limit prices for the coming weeks provided electricity generation from gas remains limited and excess can be directed towards maintaining a strong storage injection trend in readiness for next winter.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €34.99 (from €34.99) and the NBP June contract at 80.75p (from 80.45p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 295mcm from Norway (294). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.0mcm (37.0) and Sudzha at 40.6mcm (40.6). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 62.48% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €35, Winter €55 (vs €35 and €55)
Curve NBP June 81p, Winter 142p (vs 81p and 141p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 78p).
UK Power DA £100 (from £113).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £89 (£89) and Winter at £151 (£151).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($76) and EUAs are at €88 (€89). Henry Hub is at $2.19 ($2.19) and JKM is at $11.16 ($11.21) with TTF Equiv of $11.20 ($11.27).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.