Market Insight
Tony Jordan
11 May 2023

Market Insights 11/05/2023


A soft market at the prompt helped the front month push towards new lows not seen for some time, with the curve holding stable.

The EUs first joint gas buying request was made yesterday with 77 companies subscribing to 11.6 bcm of gas, of which 2.8 bcm is LNG. Suppliers have until Monday to offer to match the demand after which the mechanism will see the EU look for international suppliers. The delivery period is June 2023 to May 2024 with more bidding rounds expected over the course of the summer.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €34.99 (from €35.95) and the NBP June contract at 80.56p (from 82.23p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 294mcm from Norway (292). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.0mcm (37.0) and Sudzha at 40.6mcm (40.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 62.26% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €35, Winter €55 (vs €35 and €55)
Curve NBP June 81p, Winter 141p (vs 82p and 142p)
UK Gas NBP spot 78p (from 88p).
UK Power DA £113 (from £106).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £89 (£89) and Winter at £151 (£151).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($77) and EUAs are at €89 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.19 ($2.27) and JKM is at $11.21 ($11.24) with TTF Equiv of $11.27 ($11.56).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.