Market Insight
Tony Jordan
10 May 2023

Market Insights 10/05/2023


A fairly sideways movement across the board in yesterdays session as we appear to have found a level of comfort for the time being.

Temperature forecasts for the weeks ahead together with relative strong flows of gas are encouraging and enables storage injection to maintain pace. Whilst not at the same rate as 2020, it is maintaining relative to 2019 which also saw a strong injection pace throughout the summer, which by the end of July both met the same level of storage.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €35.95 (from €36.87) and the NBP June contract at 82.23p (from 83.35p).

Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 292mcm from Norway (292). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.0mcm (29.1) and Sudzha at 40.4mcm (32.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 62.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €36, Winter €55 (vs €36 and €55)
Curve NBP June 82p, Winter 142p (vs 83p and 141p)
UK Gas NBP spot 88p (from 95p).
UK Power DA £106 (from £107).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £89 (£89) and Winter at £151 (£149).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($77) and EUAs are at €87 (€85). Henry Hub is at $2.27 ($2.24) and JKM is at $11.24 ($11.32) with TTF Equiv of $11.56 ($11.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.