Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 May 2023

Market Insights 04/05/2023


A continuation of a relaxed market, particularly on the prompt where prices will help with storage refill for the weeks and months ahead.

It was a day of profit reporting for many over the last 24 hours with Danish trader Danske Commodities reporting a near ten-fold rise in profits for 2022 to €2.25bn (from €265 million for 2021), Norways Equinor reporting Q1 profits of $12bn (down from $18bn last year but still ahead of forecasts), Germanys Uniper reporting Q1 profits of €6.7bn from last years loss of €3.1bn and Shell reported a Q1 profit of $9.65bn. Certainly a lot of billions there.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €36.78 (from €37.53) and the NBP June contract at 83.60p (from 85.36p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 309mcm from Norway (291). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (36.5) and Sudzha at 40.9mcm (40.9). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 60.36% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 13.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €37, Winter €55 (vs €37 and €56)
Curve NBP June 84p, Winter 144p (vs 85p and 145p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 92p).
UK Power DA £95 (from £105).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £90 (£91) and Winter at £150 (£152).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($75) and EUAs are at €85 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.17 ($2.21) and JKM is at $11.50 ($11.50) with TTF Equiv of $11.94 ($12.11).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.