Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 May 2023

Market Insights 03/05/2023


A soft start to get the month underway as the gas stocks across Europe cross the 60% marker and start to show some progress.

A report commentating on the Nord Stream AG pipeline attacks last year have placed a number of Russian vessels near to the blast site just days prior to the explosion. This was met with Russian pleas for the investigation to be sped up and for the detail to be published. The identity of those responsible is still unknown, until then fingers will continue to be pointed.

Yesterday saw the TTF June contract settle at €37.53 (from €38.83) and the NBP June contract at 85.36p (from 88.53p).

Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 291mcm from Norway (289). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.5mcm (35.4) and Sudzha at 40.9mcm (39.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 60.16% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 13.

This morning we see the June TTF contract at €37, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF June €37, Winter €56 (vs €38 and €57)
Curve NBP June 85p, Winter 145p (vs 89p and 146p)
UK Gas NBP spot 92p (from 92p).
UK Power DA £105 (from £112).

UK power prices show the UK June Baseload contract at £91 (£96) and Winter at £152 (£157).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($79) and EUAs are at €88 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.21 ($2.32) and JKM is at $11.50 ($11.55) with TTF Equiv of $12.11 ($12.50).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.