Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 April 2023

Market Insights 27/04/2023


A bearish move at the front in yesterdays session as we get closer to closing out the May contract, with the rest of the curve holding steady.

Russia has declared by a decree that it would look to seize Western assets in the country in retaliation for moves made by the West on Russian assets in Europe. Last year Germany took state control of Gazprom in Europe and has since rebranded it as SEFE Securing Energy for Europe GmbH. Russia has now looked to take control of the assets of Uniper and Fortum within the country.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €38.55 (from €39.83) and the NBP May contract at 90.41p (from 94.84p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 298mcm from Norway (306). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 0mcm (35.4) and Sudzha at 41.7mcm (40.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 58.29% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €39, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF May €39, Winter €55 (vs €39 and €55)
Curve NBP May 90p, Winter 144p (vs 95p and 144p)
UK Gas NBP spot 90p (from 97p).
UK Power DA £97 (from £114).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £95 (£98) and Winter at £150 (£152).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($81) and EUAs are at €86 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.31 ($2.31) and JKM is at $11.64 ($11.85) with TTF Equiv of $12.49 ($12.82).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.