Market Insight
Tony Jordan
26 April 2023

Market Insights 26/04/2023


Markets continue to hold at key levels and not much movement seen in yesterdays session.

The Dutch government have confirmed production at Groningen, one of the largest gas fields in Europe, will cease no later than 2024 after years of the area suffering earthquakes. It will invest some €22bn in the area as part of the closure plans.

The gas stock levels, despite being at ‘comfortable’ levels for this time of year compared with previous years, appears to be at a slow start to follow a strong trend of injection. Since mid-March when withdrawals came to an end the injection profile appears to rather flat compared to other years. We have been very close to the 2020 profile since December but in recent days appear to be falling behind it. Whilst it is very early on in the season, it is something to watch closely and ensure we do not fall behind and create a panic towards the end of summer to hit the mandated 90% level.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €39.83 (from €39.93) and the NBP May contract at 94.84p (from 95.30p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 306mcm from Norway (291). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.4mcm (35.2) and Sudzha at 40.2mcm (40.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 58.14% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €39, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF May €39, Winter €55 (vs €40 and €54)
Curve NBP May 95p, Winter 144p (vs 95p and 143p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 94p).
UK Power DA £114 (from £103).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £98 (£98) and Winter at £152 (£152).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($83) and EUAs are at €87 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.31 ($2.27) and JKM is at $11.85 ($11.88) with TTF Equiv of $12.82 ($12.90).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.