Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 April 2023

Market Insights 25/04/2023


Markets continue to hold at key levels and not much movement seen in yesterdays session.

The final few days of the month before we see a change of front month contract. Storage sites across Europe are now reporting daily increases in stock levels which now approaches 60%. Temperatures are expected to stay close to seasonal normal for the weeks ahead. LNG continues to arrive with a comfortable queue for the weeks ahead and Norwegian flows are expected to return in early May after planned maintenance.  So far so good in terms of the outlook of our first year without pipeline Russian gas ahead of next winter.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €39.93 (from €40.16) and the NBP May contract at 95.30p (from 96.09p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 291mcm from Norway (284). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.2mcm (35.1) and Sudzha at 40.7mcm (40.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 57.94% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF May €40, Winter €54 (vs €40 and €55)
Curve NBP May 95p, Winter 143p (vs 96p and 144p)
UK Gas NBP spot 94p (from 99p).
UK Power DA £103 (from £95).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £98 (£101) and Winter at £152 (£152).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €88 (€90). Henry Hub is at $2.27 ($2.23) and JKM is at $11.88 ($11.88) with TTF Equiv of $12.90 ($12.92).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.