Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 April 2023

Market Insights 19/04/2023


With the markets now finding a new area of holding pattern, typically around £1/therm for the front month, £1.50/therm for Winter on the UK Gas Market (£100/£150 for UK Power and €40/€55 for TTF Gas), the daily movements in either direction of late have been small.

Eyes will now be firmly on the injection pattern of storage over the coming weeks and months – the first season without Russian pipeline gas – where Europe will rely heavily on LNG. Expected arrivals into Europe remain strong for the weeks ahead with the UK expecting a strong queue of arrivals.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €42.72 (from €41.13) and the NBP May contract at 101.92p (from 98.76p).

Njord and Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 306mcm from Norway (311). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 41.7mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.66% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 16.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €43, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €43, Winter €57 (vs €43 and €56)
Curve NBP May 102p, Winter 148p (vs 99p and 147p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 101p).
UK Power DA £99 (from £102).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £103 (£103) and Winter at £157 (£157).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($85) and EUAs are at €95 (€93). Henry Hub is at $2.37 ($2.28) and JKM is at $12.85 ($12.49) with TTF Equiv of $13.72 ($13.17).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.